Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 833 at 06:24 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–13%.

Safest bet that day WN 833 ATL 06:24 → DAL 07:28 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4992 ATL 16:35 → DAL 17:37 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 833 Southwest	ATL 06:24	DAL 07:28	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 441 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:15	DAL 09:21	7%	2%	0.5%	90%
WN 1294 Southwest	ATL 12:03	DAL 13:06	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 754 Southwest	ATL 13:44	DAL 14:43	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 512 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:59	DAL 15:03	9%	1%	0.5%	86%
DL 1104 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:15	DAL 22:25	11%	3%	0.5%	82%
DL 2780 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:44	DAL 17:54	11%	2%	0.5%	79%
WN 4992 Southwest	ATL 16:35	DAL 17:37	13%	2%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON