Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 19 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 2773 ATL 09:35 → DCA 11:17 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 727 ATL 19:55 → DCA 21:49 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2773 Southwest	ATL 09:35	DCA 11:17	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 926 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	DCA 09:16	6%	2%	0.6%	85%
DL 380 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:40	DCA 11:27	7%	2%	0.6%	82%
DL 1798 Delta	ATL 11:02	DCA 12:51	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 4733 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ATL 13:55	DCA 15:57	9%	3%	0.6%	21%
MQ 3881 Envoy	ATL 10:57	DCA 12:49	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
YX 4576 Republic	ATL 16:21	DCA 18:23	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
YX 4735 Republic	ATL 20:25	DCA 22:26	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 537 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:59	DCA 23:52	11%	4%	0.6%	70%
AA 5306 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 07:53	DCA 09:43	12%	4%	0.8%	93%
DL 360 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:09	DCA 14:56	13%	3%	0.6%	72%
WN 1376 Southwest	ATL 16:02	DCA 17:45	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 950 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:40	DCA 18:37	13%	4%	0.6%	65%
DL 850 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:35	DCA 17:30	14%	4%	0.6%	58%
DL 325 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:55	DCA 20:47	14%	5%	0.6%	60%
WN 3059 Southwest	ATL 20:26	DCA 22:08	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 378 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:55	DCA 22:48	15%	5%	0.6%	66%
DL 832 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:55	DCA 19:48	15%	5%	0.6%	59%
DL 727 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:55	DCA 21:49	15%	5%	0.6%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON