Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 15 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 340 ATL 07:30 → DEN 08:51 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 3599 ATL 20:30 → DEN 22:05 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 340 United Flight history →	ATL 07:30	DEN 08:51	5%	2%	0.5%	91%
WN 204 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 07:07	DEN 08:16	6%	1%	0.5%	89%
DL 346 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:04	DEN 09:16	6%	1%	0.6%	88%
WN 408 Southwest	ATL 12:25	DEN 13:27	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 995 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:54	DEN 11:05	7%	1%	0.6%	86%
UA 1327 United Flight history →	ATL 11:10	DEN 12:28	7%	2%	0.5%	91%
DL 957 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:55	DEN 14:00	8%	1%	0.6%	89%
DL 746 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:25	DEN 20:43	8%	2%	0.6%	70%
DL 530 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:55	DEN 14:58	9%	2%	0.6%	81%
UA 609 United	ATL 16:29	DEN 17:41	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
F9 1449 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 07:40	DEN 09:03	11%	5%	0.8%	69%
DL 519 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:43	DEN 17:56	11%	2%	0.6%	69%
DL 493 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:00	DEN 16:11	12%	2%	0.6%	79%
WN 206 Southwest	ATL 18:36	DEN 19:49	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
F9 3599 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 20:30	DEN 22:05	14%	5%	0.8%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON