Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 961 at 09:52 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 961 ATL 09:52 → DFW 11:12 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest F9 3097 ATL 17:13 → DFW 18:41 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 961 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:52	DFW 11:12	8%	2%	0.6%	88%
AA 1567 American Flight history →	ATL 08:22	DFW 09:55	8%	3%	0.7%	87%
DL 839 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:40	DFW 08:54	8%	2%	0.6%	80%
DL 414 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:28	DFW 12:44	8%	2%	0.6%	82%
DL 818 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:54	DFW 00:13	10%	3%	0.6%	80%
DL 921 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:30	DFW 15:45	10%	3%	0.6%	75%
AA 820 American Flight history →	ATL 11:02	DFW 12:16	10%	4%	0.6%	84%
AA 1276 American Flight history →	ATL 12:28	DFW 13:42	10%	4%	0.6%	83%
AA 3104 American Flight history →	ATL 14:51	DFW 16:10	11%	4%	0.6%	78%
DL 3161 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:13	DFW 21:35	11%	3%	0.6%	55%
DL 1827 Delta	ATL 17:42	DFW 18:56	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2398 American	ATL 17:14	DFW 18:46	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1008 American Flight history →	ATL 16:05	DFW 17:20	14%	5%	0.6%	76%
F9 1269 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 10:34	DFW 11:57	18%	8%	0.7%	64%
F9 3097 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 17:13	DFW 18:41	19%	9%	0.8%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON