Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1704 ATL 09:33 → DSM 10:45 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 2086 ATL 16:37 → DSM 17:52 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1704 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:33	DSM 10:45	6%	1%	0.6%	88%
DL 2094 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:25	DSM 13:34	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2306 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:15	DSM 22:29	10%	2%	0.6%	82%
DL 2086 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:37	DSM 17:52	11%	2%	0.6%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON