Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 7–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3048 ATL 08:05 → ECP 08:12 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 3131 ATL 23:27 → ECP 23:37 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3048 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:05	ECP 08:12	7%	2%	1.3%	92%
DL 2823 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:49	ECP 13:54	8%	2%	1.3%	76%
DL 3045 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:41	ECP 10:48	8%	2%	1.2%	88%
DL 3053 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:59	ECP 19:10	8%	3%	1.0%	76%
DL 3094 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:01	ECP 16:12	9%	3%	1.3%	80%
DL 3131 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:27	ECP 23:37	10%	3%	0.8%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON