Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 299 at 06:07 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–23%.

Safest bet that day UA 299 ATL 06:07 → EWR 08:25 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 1158 ATL 19:04 → EWR 21:28 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 299 United Flight history →	ATL 06:07	EWR 08:25	3%	1%	0.7%	91%
DL 2325 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:10	EWR 09:24	6%	1%	0.7%	83%
DL 2397 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:18	EWR 10:29	6%	2%	0.7%	87%
UA 2289 United Flight history →	ATL 09:18	EWR 11:32	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2401 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:05	EWR 12:21	9%	2%	0.7%	86%
UA 554 United Flight history →	ATL 11:01	EWR 13:15	10%	2%	0.6%	82%
F9 2282 Frontier	ATL 08:02	EWR 10:27	11%	5%	0.9%	no record
DL 2312 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:02	EWR 14:16	12%	2%	0.7%	72%
UA 758 United	ATL 15:07	EWR 17:37	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 2322 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:09	EWR 15:24	14%	2%	0.7%	76%
UA 2247 United Flight history →	ATL 18:04	EWR 20:19	14%	3%	0.7%	63%
DL 2527 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:41	EWR 23:52	15%	3%	0.7%	65%
UA 1152 United Flight history →	ATL 19:37	EWR 22:04	15%	3%	0.7%	65%
DL 2340 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:33	EWR 17:53	16%	3%	0.7%	66%
DL 2498 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:35	EWR 20:54	18%	3%	0.7%	56%
F9 1158 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 19:04	EWR 21:28	23%	9%	0.9%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON