Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 9–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1281 ATL 09:06 → EYW 11:00 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 2168 ATL 15:25 → EYW 17:23 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1281 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:06	EYW 11:00	9%	3%	0.8%	90%
DL 1472 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:30	EYW 13:23	10%	2%	0.8%	87%
DL 2815 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:53	EYW 19:51	10%	3%	0.8%	77%
DL 2168 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:25	EYW 17:23	11%	3%	0.8%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON