tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, DL 2615 at 18:16, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2615 Delta Flight history → ATL 18:16 FSD 19:56 9% 3% 0.6% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sioux Falls on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sioux Falls is 1 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ATL 17:38 → MSP 19:15DL 2981 2h 50m Minneapolis MSP 22:05 → FSD 23:06DL 1694 6h 28m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → ATL 08:50 → DEN 10:20UA 340 3h 20m Denver DEN 13:40 → FSD 16:23UA 5378 · flown by SkyWest 8h 33m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → ATL 11:06 → DFW 12:38AA 820 2h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:06 → FSD 17:15AA 3820 · flown by Envoy 7h 09m 96% 85%
AmericanDetails → ATL 06:01 → DFW 07:33AA 2770 2h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:05 → FSD 12:33AA 2872 7h 32m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → ATL 12:28 → DFW 13:42AA 1276 3h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:35 → FSD 19:44AA 2937 8h 16m 98% 65%
UnitedDetails → ATL 13:18 → ORD 14:41UA 745 1h 19m Chicago ORD 16:00 → FSD 17:53UA 4404 · flown by GoJet 5h 35m 93% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON