Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3173 ATL 08:10 → GSO 09:27 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 3050 ATL 16:30 → GSO 17:50 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3173 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:10	GSO 09:27	6%	1%	0.6%	96%
DL 3052 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:15	GSO 11:34	6%	1%	0.6%	88%
DL 2539 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:15	GSO 15:30	7%	1%	0.6%	87%
DL 3060 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:49	GSO 14:04	8%	1%	0.6%	84%
DL 3005 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:40	GSO 23:59	12%	2%	0.6%	85%
DL 1617 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:20	GSO 22:43	13%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 3050 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:30	GSO 17:50	13%	2%	0.6%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON