Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 4–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3089 ATL 08:15 → GSP 09:13 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 3136 ATL 19:40 → GSP 20:39 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3089 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:15	GSP 09:13	4%	1%	0.6%	91%
DL 1725 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:16	GSP 12:14	5%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 2158 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:57	GSP 10:57	6%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 3010 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:57	GSP 14:57	7%	2%	0.6%	85%
DL 3095 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:46	GSP 17:45	9%	2%	0.6%	80%
DL 2281 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:55	GSP 22:55	10%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 3136 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:40	GSP 20:39	10%	2%	0.6%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON