Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 440 ATL 07:37 → HOU 08:45 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2051 ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 440 Southwest	ATL 07:37	HOU 08:45	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 1509 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:41	HOU 09:45	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 1195 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:05	HOU 12:10	8%	2%	0.6%	85%
DL 2381 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:12	HOU 16:22	9%	2%	0.6%	81%
WN 2167 Southwest	ATL 13:55	HOU 14:54	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 3530 Southwest	ATL 18:28	HOU 19:31	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2051 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:45	HOU 21:51	13%	3%	0.6%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON