Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 10–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5435 ATL 12:01 → HPN 14:33 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest DL 5013 ATL 15:23 → HPN 17:54 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5435 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ATL 12:01	HPN 14:33	10%	3%	0.7%	73%
DL 1616 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:59	HPN 22:25	10%	3%	0.6%	74%
DL 2973 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:27	HPN 11:55	11%	2%	0.6%	80%
DL 5013 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	ATL 15:23	HPN 17:54	11%	3%	0.7%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON