Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 5–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3036 ATL 08:05 → HSV 08:03 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 3065 ATL 20:36 → HSV 20:38 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3036 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:05	HSV 08:03	5%	1%	0.6%	91%
DL 1708 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:05	HSV 09:02	6%	1%	0.6%	91%
9E 5266 Endeavor	ATL 13:26	HSV 13:32	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
DL 2182 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:55	HSV 11:58	7%	1%	0.6%	81%
DL 3026 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:29	HSV 15:29	7%	1%	0.6%	83%
DL 3171 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:00	HSV 19:00	8%	2%	0.6%	79%
DL 3022 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:00	HSV 23:01	9%	2%	0.6%	87%
DL 3065 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:36	HSV 20:38	10%	2%	0.6%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON