Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 1159 at 05:36 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 1159 ATL 05:36 → IAD 07:30 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3692 ATL 22:26 → IAD 00:35 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1159 United	ATL 05:36	IAD 07:30	4%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 1324 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:43	IAD 09:26	5%	2%	0.6%	90%
UA 632 United Flight history →	ATL 09:25	IAD 11:15	6%	2%	0.5%	89%
DL 2135 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:17	IAD 14:01	7%	2%	0.6%	85%
DL 1444 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:50	IAD 11:37	7%	2%	0.6%	88%
UA 1831 United Flight history →	ATL 14:41	IAD 16:35	8%	3%	0.5%	78%
DL 1695 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:59	IAD 16:46	10%	2%	0.6%	78%
DL 1309 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:05	IAD 19:54	11%	3%	0.6%	76%
DL 2549 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:53	IAD 00:41	11%	3%	0.6%	75%
F9 4410 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 14:52	IAD 16:40	16%	9%	0.8%	67%
F9 3692 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 22:26	IAD 00:35	19%	10%	0.8%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON