Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 12 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 532 ATL 07:05 → IAH 08:15 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 4075 ATL 21:25 → IAH 22:39 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 532 United Flight history →	ATL 07:05	IAH 08:15	9%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 1682 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:05	IAH 11:14	9%	2%	0.5%	83%
DL 1585 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:30	IAH 08:35	10%	2%	0.5%	81%
DL 1572 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:27	IAH 13:33	10%	2%	0.5%	86%
UA 425 United Flight history →	ATL 11:37	IAH 12:47	11%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 1601 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:48	IAH 23:57	12%	3%	0.5%	76%
DL 2327 Delta	ATL 18:25	IAH 19:28	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 1284 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:13	IAH 21:24	13%	3%	0.5%	73%
DL 1223 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:36	IAH 15:40	14%	3%	0.5%	68%
F9 1403 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 06:07	IAH 07:20	14%	5%	0.7%	76%
DL 1131 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:24	IAH 17:26	16%	3%	0.5%	59%
F9 4075 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 21:25	IAH 22:39	16%	8%	0.7%	63%
UA 3992 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 15:57	IAH 17:23	28%	16%	0.0%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON