Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 5–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3125 ATL 07:30 → IND 09:00 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 1482 ATL 20:51 → IND 22:27 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3125 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:30	IND 09:00	5%	1%	0.6%	95%
DL 2952 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:03	IND 10:33	5%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 3013 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:05	IND 12:36	5%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 3134 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:48	IND 15:19	6%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 2979 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:55	IND 17:35	6%	2%	0.6%	78%
DL 3120 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:35	IND 19:10	8%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 2657 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:04	IND 00:41	8%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 1482 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:51	IND 22:27	10%	2%	0.6%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON