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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 9969 at 06:21 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 9969 ATL 06:21 → JAX 07:36 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1550 ATL 17:53 → JAX 19:25 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time
Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

DL 9969 Delta ATL 06:21 JAX 07:36 6% 1% 2.1% no record
DL 2328 Delta Flight history → ATL 07:25 JAX 08:36 6% 2% 2.7% 89%
DL 2326 Delta Flight history → ATL 08:25 JAX 09:36 8% 2% 2.7% 89%
DL 2923 Delta Flight history → ATL 10:48 JAX 12:00 14% 2% 2.7% 87%
DL 2276 Delta Flight history → ATL 22:54 JAX 00:09 15% 3% 1.8% 76%
DL 3024 Delta Flight history → ATL 12:37 JAX 13:45 16% 3% 5.1% 80%
DL 2990 Delta Flight history → ATL 13:57 JAX 15:09 17% 3% 5.1% 81%
DL 2189 Delta Flight history → ATL 20:52 JAX 22:06 20% 4% 3.6% 64%
DL 2720 Delta Flight history → ATL 15:20 JAX 16:35 20% 3% 5.1% 78%
DL 2315 Delta Flight history → ATL 18:07 JAX 19:24 22% 4% 4.4% 57%
DL 2440 Delta ATL 16:41 JAX 17:56 22% 4% 4.4% no record
F9 1550 Frontier Flight history → ATL 17:53 JAX 19:25 27% 9% 14.1% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON