Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 2420 at 07:42 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 2420 ATL 07:42 → JFK 10:00 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 520 ATL 19:05 → JFK 21:32 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2420 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:42	JFK 10:00	5%	1%	0.6%	90%
DL 1034 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:44	JFK 12:00	6%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2380 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:05	JFK 13:20	7%	2%	0.6%	82%
DL 1575 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:55	JFK 16:29	7%	2%	0.6%	77%
DL 2398 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:45	JFK 21:29	7%	2%	0.6%	76%
DL 1632 Delta	ATL 22:34	JFK 00:46	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2378 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:28	JFK 21:40	11%	2%	0.6%	70%
B6 1520 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 10:09	JFK 12:31	13%	5%	0.7%	74%
F9 4732 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 09:21	JFK 11:50	13%	6%	0.8%	74%
B6 120 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 14:19	JFK 16:43	14%	5%	0.7%	68%
B6 520 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 19:05	JFK 21:32	18%	6%	0.7%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON