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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 212 at 07:17 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 212 ATL 07:17 → LAS 08:32 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest F9 1115 ATL 21:00 → LAS 22:29 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time
Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 212 Southwest Flight history → ATL 07:17 LAS 08:32 6% 1% 0.5% 73%
DL 945 Delta Flight history → ATL 09:55 LAS 11:00 7% 2% 0.6% 84%
DL 777 Delta Flight history → ATL 08:25 LAS 09:31 7% 1% 0.6% 86%
DL 466 Delta Flight history → ATL 11:00 LAS 12:02 8% 2% 0.6% 80%
DL 549 Delta Flight history → ATL 13:15 LAS 14:18 8% 2% 0.6% 80%
DL 659 Delta Flight history → ATL 15:50 LAS 17:08 9% 2% 0.6% 81%
DL 919 Delta Flight history → ATL 18:34 LAS 19:49 9% 3% 0.6% 76%
DL 722 Delta Flight history → ATL 18:34 LAS 19:42 9% 3% 0.6% 63%
DL 711 Delta Flight history → ATL 16:40 LAS 17:52 10% 2% 0.6% 78%
WN 215 Southwest ATL 17:30 LAS 19:15 11% 2% 0.5% no record
DL 825 Delta Flight history → ATL 21:20 LAS 22:35 11% 3% 0.6% 67%
F9 4891 Frontier Flight history → ATL 08:44 LAS 10:12 16% 6% 0.9% 70%
F9 1115 Frontier Flight history → ATL 21:00 LAS 22:29 19% 9% 1.0% 81%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
SouthwestDetails → ATL 07:07 → DEN 08:16WN 204 57m Denver DEN 09:13 → LAS 10:07WN 784 6h 00m 93% 86%
AmericanDetails → ATL 14:51 → DFW 16:10AA 3104 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:58 → LAS 17:48AA 2864 5h 57m 86% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON