Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 12 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 895 ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 763 ATL 19:20 → LAX 20:45 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 895 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:40	LAX 14:12	6%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 996 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:15	LAX 08:48	7%	1%	0.6%	89%
DL 753 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:45	LAX 16:17	8%	2%	0.6%	85%
DL 898 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:15	LAX 09:48	8%	1%	0.6%	88%
DL 501 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:25	LAX 11:55	9%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 827 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:15	LAX 10:45	9%	1%	0.6%	85%
DL 301 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:42	LAX 17:21	10%	2%	0.6%	69%
F9 4315 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 10:32	LAX 12:39	11%	5%	0.8%	74%
DL 500 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:58	LAX 19:30	11%	2%	0.6%	77%
F9 3215 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 15:15	LAX 16:54	14%	5%	0.8%	69%
DL 575 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:54	LAX 00:30	14%	3%	0.6%	68%
DL 763 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:20	LAX 20:45	15%	2%	0.6%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466	1h 06m Las Vegas	LAS 13:08 → LAX 14:24DL 1696	6h 24m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	ATL 13:54 → BNA 14:03DL 3159	56m Nashville	BNA 14:59 → LAX 17:10DL 355	6h 16m	90%	82%
Southwest Details →	ATL 07:07 → DEN 08:16WN 204	48m Denver	DEN 09:04 → LAX 10:24WN 1532	6h 17m	85%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON