Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 23 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: YX 4809 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–25%.

Safest bet that day YX 4809 ATL 06:15 → LGA 08:43 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3454 ATL 15:30 → LGA 17:51 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4809 Republic	ATL 06:15	LGA 08:43	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
DL 404 Delta Flight history →	ATL 06:00	LGA 08:10	4%	1%	0.7%	92%
DL 323 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:30	LGA 09:39	6%	2%	0.7%	91%
YX 4612 Republic	ATL 09:30	LGA 11:53	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 513 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:30	LGA 10:41	8%	2%	0.7%	88%
AA 4600 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ATL 12:10	LGA 14:44	8%	2%	0.7%	77%
DL 520 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:00	LGA 23:24	8%	3%	0.7%	72%
DL 371 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:30	LGA 12:42	9%	2%	0.7%	86%
DL 525 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:30	LGA 14:50	9%	2%	0.7%	75%
DL 557 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:30	LGA 11:43	9%	2%	0.6%	85%
DL 467 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:30	LGA 13:42	9%	2%	0.7%	86%
DL 460 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:30	LGA 15:50	10%	2%	0.7%	78%
DL 524 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:30	LGA 16:50	11%	2%	0.7%	73%
DL 490 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:00	LGA 22:27	11%	3%	0.7%	63%
DL 434 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:00	LGA 20:27	12%	3%	0.7%	64%
DL 997 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:00	LGA 19:20	12%	3%	0.7%	68%
DL 433 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:30	LGA 17:49	13%	3%	0.7%	71%
DL 468 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:00	LGA 21:28	13%	3%	0.7%	67%
YX 4349 Republic	ATL 15:21	LGA 17:35	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 4607 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ATL 16:16	LGA 18:38	13%	3%	0.7%	50%
AA 4662 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ATL 19:25	LGA 21:49	13%	3%	0.7%	57%
F9 3458 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 18:35	LGA 20:57	25%	12%	1.2%	34%
F9 3454 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 15:30	LGA 17:51	27%	10%	1.2%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON