tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 7–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2471 ATL 08:30 → MCI 09:38 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 3023 ATL 19:59 → MCI 21:08 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time
Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
DL 2471 Delta Flight history → ATL 08:30 MCI 09:38 7% 1% 0.7% 93%
WN 2417 Southwest ATL 15:11 MCI 16:32 7% 2% 0.5% no record
DL 2747 Delta Flight history → ATL 11:05 MCI 12:13 8% 1% 0.6% 85%
DL 2908 Delta Flight history → ATL 10:00 MCI 11:11 8% 2% 0.7% 90%
DL 1443 Delta Flight history → ATL 13:24 MCI 14:29 9% 2% 0.6% 88%
DL 1660 Delta Flight history → ATL 15:20 MCI 16:30 10% 2% 0.6% 86%
DL 2911 Delta Flight history → ATL 22:48 MCI 23:58 11% 2% 0.6% 81%
DL 1130 Delta Flight history → ATL 17:49 MCI 18:56 12% 2% 0.6% 79%
DL 3023 Delta Flight history → ATL 19:59 MCI 21:08 13% 2% 0.6% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON