Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1248 ATL 09:05 → MDT 10:56 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 2857 ATL 15:41 → MDT 17:37 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1248 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:05	MDT 10:56	8%	1%	0.6%	88%
DL 1354 Delta	ATL 12:11	MDT 14:14	9%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 1283 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:59	MDT 23:53	10%	3%	0.5%	78%
DL 2857 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:41	MDT 17:37	11%	2%	0.5%	79%
DL 4717 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 11:15	MDT 13:17	19%	8%	0.0%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON