Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 232 at 07:57 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 232 ATL 07:57 → MDW 08:53 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time Riskiest F9 2779 ATL 17:02 → MDW 18:20 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 232 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 07:57	MDW 08:53	6%	1%	0.6%	48%
DL 2417 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:00	MDW 11:56	9%	2%	0.6%	88%
WN 1332 Southwest	ATL 11:06	MDW 12:02	9%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 1063 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:09	MDW 10:05	10%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 1728 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:15	MDW 16:15	11%	2%	0.6%	77%
WN 236 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 18:35	MDW 19:39	12%	3%	0.6%	91%
WN 1893 Southwest	ATL 14:33	MDW 15:27	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1076 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:15	MDW 22:15	13%	2%	0.6%	77%
F9 2291 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 02:12	MDW 03:28	15%	8%	1.3%	68%
F9 2779 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 17:02	MDW 18:20	20%	8%	0.9%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON