Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 7–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2778 ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 3020 ATL 20:25 → MEM 20:48 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 2778 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:15	MEM 12:32	7%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 733 Delta	ATL 13:47	MEM 14:11	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1700 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:08	MEM 15:30	9%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 2071 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:10	MEM 09:27	9%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2937 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:10	MEM 10:32	9%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 1681 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:37	MEM 17:02	10%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 2939 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:53	MEM 18:16	11%	3%	0.6%	78%
DL 2501 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:00	MEM 23:24	14%	3%	0.6%	76%
DL 3020 Delta	ATL 20:25	MEM 20:48	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 5247 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 07:25	MEM 07:47	12%	6%	0.0%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON