Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 3190 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 3190 ATL 07:00 → MIA 09:05 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest F9 2272 ATL 18:32 → MIA 20:42 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3190 American Flight history →	ATL 07:00	MIA 09:05	6%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 1510 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:55	MIA 10:57	7%	2%	0.7%	84%
DL 2836 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:31	MIA 11:33	8%	2%	0.7%	90%
DL 1332 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:00	MIA 13:02	9%	2%	0.8%	82%
AA 526 American	ATL 09:15	MIA 11:23	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 1589 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:53	MIA 00:55	12%	6%	1.0%	69%
F9 4406 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 08:31	MIA 10:36	13%	5%	0.8%	74%
DL 1323 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:32	MIA 15:26	13%	4%	0.9%	63%
AA 1046 American Flight history →	ATL 13:05	MIA 15:03	14%	6%	0.7%	86%
DL 1386 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:50	MIA 16:55	16%	6%	1.0%	63%
DL 1588 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:53	MIA 21:59	17%	7%	1.2%	66%
DL 719 Delta	ATL 16:54	MIA 18:51	22%	8%	1.2%	no record
AA 1368 American Flight history →	ATL 17:04	MIA 19:08	24%	8%	0.9%	62%
F9 2272 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 18:32	MIA 20:42	24%	13%	1.3%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON