Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 7–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2681 ATL 09:20 → MSN 10:22 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 2144 ATL 21:32 → MSN 22:38 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2681 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:20	MSN 10:22	7%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 2599 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:47	MSN 15:51	9%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 2144 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:32	MSN 22:38	9%	3%	0.6%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON