Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 3128 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 3128 ATL 07:35 → MSY 08:04 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 1371 ATL 17:01 → MSY 17:56 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3128 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:35	MSY 08:04	4%	2%	0.8%	94%
DL 1424 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:58	MSY 09:29	5%	1%	0.7%	92%
DL 2542 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:05	MSY 11:37	6%	1%	0.7%	87%
DL 3157 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:45	MSY 14:17	9%	2%	0.7%	83%
DL 3146 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:23	MSY 15:57	11%	2%	0.7%	79%
DL 2224 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:56	MSY 23:31	12%	3%	0.7%	83%
DL 678 Delta	ATL 17:51	MSY 18:27	13%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 1450 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:54	MSY 20:28	13%	3%	0.7%	74%
F9 1371 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 17:01	MSY 17:56	19%	8%	1.2%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON