Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3182 ATL 11:48 → MYR 13:00 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 1093 ATL 17:48 → MYR 19:07 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3182 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:48	MYR 13:00	8%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 3047 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:30	MYR 10:47	9%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 3074 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:40	MYR 23:55	12%	3%	0.6%	79%
DL 1093 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:48	MYR 19:07	14%	2%	0.6%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON