Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 7–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2632 ATL 08:10 → OMA 09:28 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 2010 ATL 22:28 → OMA 23:49 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2632 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:10	OMA 09:28	7%	1%	0.6%	89%
DL 1125 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:26	OMA 12:45	9%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 2364 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:25	OMA 17:48	10%	2%	0.6%	76%
DL 2010 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:28	OMA 23:49	11%	3%	0.6%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON