Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 1288 at 11:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 1288 ATL 11:00 → ORD 12:20 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1595 ATL 16:57 → ORD 18:23 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1288 United	ATL 11:00	ORD 12:20	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1762 American	ATL 07:30	ORD 08:50	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1955 United	ATL 08:00	ORD 09:14	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 1147 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:02	ORD 10:10	8%	2%	0.6%	80%
UA 745 United Flight history →	ATL 13:18	ORD 14:41	9%	3%	0.5%	81%
DL 2894 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:22	ORD 12:34	9%	2%	0.6%	70%
AA 1041 American	ATL 10:34	ORD 11:50	9%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 1199 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:40	ORD 23:53	10%	3%	0.6%	71%
AA 2620 American	ATL 13:26	ORD 14:45	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 516 United Flight history →	ATL 15:30	ORD 16:57	11%	3%	0.5%	74%
DL 1477 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:02	ORD 14:14	12%	2%	0.6%	76%
UA 2657 United	ATL 19:11	ORD 20:26	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 3059 American	ATL 14:16	ORD 15:21	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
F9 1441 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 10:25	ORD 11:52	13%	8%	0.9%	73%
AA 616 American Flight history →	ATL 16:43	ORD 17:53	14%	4%	0.7%	75%
DL 2738 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:50	ORD 17:12	15%	3%	0.6%	62%
AA 2096 American	ATL 20:04	ORD 21:18	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 1850 United	ATL 17:06	ORD 18:22	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 1139 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:39	ORD 20:38	22%	4%	0.6%	60%
DL 2879 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:20	ORD 18:45	22%	3%	0.6%	49%
F9 1595 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 16:57	ORD 18:23	22%	8%	0.9%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON