Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 6–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1336 ATL 07:31 → ORF 09:09 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2731 ATL 20:36 → ORF 22:16 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1336 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:31	ORF 09:09	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 2925 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:23	ORF 14:10	6%	2%	0.5%	83%
DL 2755 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:46	ORF 11:28	7%	2%	0.5%	89%
DL 1101 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:10	ORF 15:50	8%	2%	0.5%	74%
DL 2338 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:46	ORF 00:34	8%	3%	0.6%	80%
DL 1346 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:07	ORF 18:53	11%	3%	0.5%	69%
F9 3072 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 10:43	ORF 12:32	11%	6%	0.7%	79%
DL 2984 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:54	ORF 21:42	11%	2%	0.6%	76%
DL 2731 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:36	ORF 22:16	12%	2%	0.6%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON