Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 539 ATL 08:30 → PDX 10:27 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest DL 691 ATL 19:46 → PDX 21:55 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 539 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:30	PDX 10:27	6%	1%	0.7%	84%
DL 2206 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:00	PDX 12:58	6%	2%	0.7%	84%
DL 503 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:52	PDX 18:56	8%	2%	0.7%	74%
AS 783 Alaska Flight history →	ATL 18:00	PDX 20:24	9%	2%	0.7%	83%
DL 691 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:46	PDX 21:55	10%	2%	0.7%	76%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830	1h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	6h 55m	95%	88%
Delta Details →	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	1h 27m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:17 → PDX 16:09DL 1244	7h 13m	96%	87%
United Details →	ATL 11:10 → DEN 12:28UA 1327	59m Denver	DEN 13:27 → PDX 15:13UA 2455	7h 03m	93%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON