Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3270 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 3270 ATL 06:00 → PHL 08:10 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 2552 ATL 15:59 → PHL 18:18 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3270 American Flight history →	ATL 06:00	PHL 08:10	3%	3%	0.6%	93%
AA 1428 American Flight history →	ATL 07:05	PHL 09:15	5%	3%	0.6%	91%
YX 4755 Republic	ATL 11:44	PHL 13:56	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 1100 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:30	PHL 09:31	5%	1%	0.6%	86%
DL 2270 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:55	PHL 10:57	5%	1%	0.6%	87%
YX 4725 Republic	ATL 13:57	PHL 16:12	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2279 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:21	PHL 13:24	6%	1%	0.6%	86%
DL 2131 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:00	PHL 15:02	7%	2%	0.6%	73%
DL 1692 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:00	PHL 16:04	8%	2%	0.6%	69%
DL 2642 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:56	PHL 00:59	8%	2%	0.6%	78%
DL 1329 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:05	PHL 18:12	9%	2%	0.6%	62%
DL 2065 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:15	PHL 21:20	9%	2%	0.6%	65%
AA 5250 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 17:56	PHL 20:05	10%	4%	0.8%	94%
F9 1004 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 05:05	PHL 07:15	12%	5%	0.8%	71%
F9 1102 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 20:12	PHL 22:28	18%	9%	0.8%	47%
F9 2552 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 15:59	PHL 18:18	19%	9%	0.8%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON