Today looks like a normal day here: all 12 nonstops are 12–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 348 ATL 08:10 → PHX 09:01 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest WN 250 ATL 18:53 → PHX 19:56 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 348 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:10	PHX 09:01	12%	1%	0.1%	81%
DL 687 Delta	ATL 11:02	PHX 11:59	12%	2%	0.1%	no record
DL 1053 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:45	PHX 10:41	15%	2%	0.1%	71%
DL 796 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:21	PHX 13:07	15%	2%	0.1%	81%
AA 1777 American Flight history →	ATL 07:48	PHX 09:00	15%	4%	0.2%	88%
DL 836 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:59	PHX 18:53	16%	3%	0.6%	73%
DL 2013 Delta	ATL 20:04	PHX 21:05	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 929 Delta	ATL 20:32	PHX 21:35	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 842 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:15	PHX 22:21	16%	3%	0.6%	75%
DL 366 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:04	PHX 14:06	16%	2%	0.1%	83%
WN 540 Southwest	ATL 17:31	PHX 18:37	19%	4%	0.4%	no record
WN 250 Southwest	ATL 18:53	PHX 19:56	19%	4%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON