Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 6–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1363 ATL 09:03 → PIT 10:45 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 2583 ATL 19:55 → PIT 21:42 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1363 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:03	PIT 10:45	6%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 1345 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:10	PIT 12:52	6%	2%	0.6%	87%
DL 1353 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:08	PIT 15:50	6%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 1568 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:23	PIT 17:08	8%	2%	0.6%	84%
DL 1351 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:04	PIT 00:50	8%	2%	0.6%	80%
DL 3122 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:54	PIT 18:39	10%	2%	0.6%	77%
DL 2583 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:55	PIT 21:42	10%	2%	0.6%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON