Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3103 ATL 08:05 → PNS 08:17 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 3021 ATL 20:45 → PNS 20:58 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3103 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:05	PNS 08:17	7%	3%	0.9%	93%
DL 1640 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:50	PNS 13:00	12%	3%	0.7%	87%
DL 3198 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:39	PNS 10:51	12%	4%	0.8%	89%
DL 2807 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:15	PNS 23:30	14%	3%	0.7%	80%
DL 1013 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:00	PNS 15:13	14%	3%	0.8%	84%
DL 2211 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:48	PNS 17:03	14%	3%	1.0%	82%
DL 3021 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:45	PNS 20:58	16%	4%	0.8%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON