Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2634 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 2634 ATL 07:25 → RDU 08:53 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 1670 ATL 22:30 → RDU 00:04 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2634 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	RDU 08:53	4%	1%	0.6%	96%
DL 2052 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:02	RDU 11:35	5%	1%	0.6%	88%
DL 1699 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:43	RDU 10:10	6%	1%	0.6%	93%
DL 1488 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:12	RDU 12:42	6%	1%	0.6%	91%
DL 2026 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:05	RDU 14:30	7%	1%	0.6%	89%
DL 1550 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:52	RDU 16:20	8%	1%	0.6%	85%
DL 2600 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:52	RDU 17:25	10%	2%	0.6%	79%
DL 2938 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:40	RDU 00:10	10%	2%	0.6%	66%
DL 1097 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:18	RDU 18:54	10%	2%	0.6%	74%
DL 1518 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:25	RDU 20:57	11%	2%	0.6%	74%
DL 3244 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:25	RDU 22:00	13%	2%	0.6%	74%
F9 1168 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 11:19	RDU 12:58	14%	6%	0.8%	68%
F9 1670 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 22:30	RDU 00:04	22%	8%	0.9%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON