Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 3–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1462 ATL 07:36 → RIC 09:12 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 1263 ATL 20:12 → RIC 21:54 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1462 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:36	RIC 09:12	3%	1%	0.6%	93%
DL 2650 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:15	RIC 11:56	5%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 3152 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:34	RIC 14:15	5%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 1214 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:46	RIC 16:23	6%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 1175 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:10	RIC 00:51	8%	2%	0.6%	82%
DL 1348 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:12	RIC 18:53	9%	2%	0.6%	77%
DL 1263 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:12	RIC 21:54	10%	2%	0.6%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON