Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 8–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1089 ATL 08:05 → RSW 09:43 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 1736 ATL 19:28 → RSW 21:13 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1089 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:05	RSW 09:43	8%	1%	1.2%	90%
DL 1196 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:53	RSW 14:35	13%	2%	1.2%	85%
DL 1153 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:25	RSW 12:11	13%	2%	1.2%	83%
DL 1217 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:40	RSW 00:23	13%	3%	1.8%	74%
DL 1379 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:59	RSW 16:44	16%	3%	1.3%	72%
DL 1124 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:07	RSW 18:55	16%	5%	1.9%	74%
DL 1736 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:28	RSW 21:13	18%	5%	1.9%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON