Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 9–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 725 ATL 08:05 → SAN 09:26 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 819 ATL 19:52 → SAN 21:35 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 725 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:05	SAN 09:26	9%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 843 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:04	SAN 11:43	10%	2%	0.7%	82%
DL 540 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:50	SAN 13:08	10%	2%	0.7%	85%
DL 924 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:40	SAN 17:20	13%	2%	0.7%	77%
DL 712 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:55	SAN 19:37	14%	2%	0.7%	80%
DL 819 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:52	SAN 21:35	15%	2%	0.7%	73%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	ATL 07:17 → LAS 08:32WN 212	51m Las Vegas	LAS 09:23 → SAN 10:34WN 1604	6h 17m	93%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON