Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 7–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3011 ATL 08:15 → SAV 09:16 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 3112 ATL 16:50 → SAV 18:02 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3011 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:15	SAV 09:16	7%	1%	0.9%	91%
DL 3054 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:23	SAV 10:27	8%	1%	0.8%	86%
DL 1067 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:32	SAV 14:38	9%	1%	0.8%	83%
DL 2860 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:46	SAV 23:53	9%	2%	0.7%	83%
DL 3014 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:03	SAV 16:14	9%	1%	0.8%	81%
DL 527 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:50	SAV 18:59	11%	2%	0.7%	71%
DL 2425 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:06	SAV 21:17	11%	2%	0.7%	83%
DL 3112 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:50	SAV 18:02	11%	2%	0.8%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON