Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 4–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2117 ATL 07:38 → SDF 08:59 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2831 ATL 17:50 → SDF 19:13 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2117 Delta	ATL 07:38	SDF 08:59	4%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 3092 Delta	ATL 07:34	SDF 09:02	4%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1374 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:10	SDF 10:29	6%	1%	0.6%	90%
DL 1481 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:30	SDF 11:51	6%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 3195 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:22	SDF 15:42	8%	2%	0.6%	79%
DL 2624 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:02	SDF 00:26	10%	2%	0.6%	85%
DL 1126 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:25	SDF 17:49	10%	2%	0.6%	79%
DL 2842 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:03	SDF 21:32	11%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 2831 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:50	SDF 19:13	11%	2%	0.6%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON