Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 10 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 629 ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AS 348 ATL 08:54 → SEA 11:20 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 629 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:33	SEA 14:50	8%	2%	0.6%	82%
DL 444 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:40	SEA 09:54	9%	1%	0.6%	82%
DL 481 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:38	SEA 16:49	10%	2%	0.6%	80%
DL 774 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:50	SEA 12:13	11%	2%	0.6%	84%
DL 472 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:45	SEA 19:05	11%	2%	0.6%	70%
DL 903 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:35	SEA 23:59	11%	2%	0.6%	79%
AS 377 Alaska Flight history →	ATL 07:00	SEA 09:26	13%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 714 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:50	SEA 20:11	14%	2%	0.6%	67%
AS 218 Alaska Flight history →	ATL 16:18	SEA 18:46	15%	3%	0.6%	62%
AS 348 Alaska Flight history →	ATL 08:54	SEA 11:20	16%	2%	0.6%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	1h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	7h 43m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	ATL 08:44 → MSP 10:18DL 2960	52m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	7h 16m	91%	84%
Alaska Details →	ATL 18:00 → PDX 20:24AS 783	1h 06m Portland	PDX 21:30 → SEA 22:27AS 2421 · flown by Horizon	7h 27m	92%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON