Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 7–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day 9E 5001 ATL 08:57 → SHV 09:52 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 4111 ATL 15:41 → SHV 16:34 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


9E 5001 Endeavor	ATL 08:57	SHV 09:52	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
9E 5024 Endeavor	ATL 08:51	SHV 09:39	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 3507 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ATL 11:21	SHV 12:11	12%	4%	0.6%	81%
DL 4095 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ATL 21:15	SHV 22:04	13%	4%	0.6%	63%
OO 4137 SkyWest	ATL 15:36	SHV 16:38	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 3505 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ATL 19:05	SHV 19:52	14%	4%	0.7%	62%
DL 4111 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ATL 15:41	SHV 16:34	15%	5%	0.6%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON