Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 07:17, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day


DL 809 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:43	SJC 11:30	9%	2%	0.7%	90%
DL 933 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:59	SJC 22:49	9%	2%	0.7%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 17:58 → LAX 19:30DL 500	2h 04m Los Angeles	LAX 21:34 → SJC 22:58DL 3883 · flown by SkyWest	8h 00m	97%	92%
Delta Details →	ATL 08:15 → LAX 09:48DL 898	3h 09m Los Angeles	LAX 12:57 → SJC 14:12DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest	8h 57m	100%	92%
Southwest Details →	ATL 07:17 → LAS 08:32WN 212	1h 14m Las Vegas	LAS 09:46 → SJC 11:21WN 1682	7h 04m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481	3h 41m Seattle	SEA 20:30 → SJC 22:48DL 3956 · flown by SkyWest	11h 10m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	3h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:10 → SJC 16:04DL 1260	8h 54m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14DL 830	1h 26m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254	7h 20m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	ATL 15:42 → LAX 17:21DL 301	3h 26m Los Angeles	LAX 20:47 → SJC 22:10DL 1420	9h 28m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	3h 00m Seattle	SEA 17:50 → SJC 20:14DL 4100 · flown by SkyWest	10h 41m	99%	89%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	ATL 18:35 → MDW 19:39WN 236	46m Chicago	MDW 20:25 → SJC 22:56WN 3810	7h 21m	66%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON