Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1882 at 09:45 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 1882 ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest F9 2082 ATL 10:25 → SJU 14:16 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1882 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:45	SJU 13:32	10%	1%	0.6%	78%
DL 1946 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:00	SJU 16:39	11%	2%	0.6%	82%
DL 1861 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:45	SJU 22:30	12%	3%	0.7%	67%
F9 2082 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 10:25	SJU 14:16	22%	7%	0.8%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON