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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 6–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 830 ATL 08:15 → SLC 10:14 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 453 ATL 22:25 → SLC 00:26 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time
Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

DL 830 Delta Flight history → ATL 08:15 SLC 10:14 6% 1% 0.6% 89%
DL 387 Delta Flight history → ATL 10:10 SLC 12:10 6% 1% 0.6% 92%
DL 663 Delta Flight history → ATL 11:56 SLC 13:50 6% 1% 0.6% 88%
DL 526 Delta Flight history → ATL 15:20 SLC 17:18 8% 1% 0.6% 82%
DL 423 Delta Flight history → ATL 13:55 SLC 15:51 9% 1% 0.6% 86%
DL 653 Delta Flight history → ATL 18:00 SLC 20:02 9% 2% 0.6% 80%
DL 660 Delta Flight history → ATL 19:34 SLC 21:37 11% 2% 0.6% 76%
DL 453 Delta Flight history → ATL 22:25 SLC 00:26 12% 2% 0.6% 75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
SouthwestDetails → ATL 07:07 → DEN 08:16WN 204 1h 00m Denver DEN 09:16 → SLC 10:42WN 1680 5h 35m 94% 88%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON