Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 08:15, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Nonstops that day


DL 904 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:16	SMF 11:00	8%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 682 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:59	SMF 22:53	10%	2%	0.7%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 18:00 → SLC 20:02DL 653	3h 02m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582	8h 44m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481	3h 36m Seattle	SEA 20:25 → SMF 22:31DL 4131 · flown by SkyWest	10h 53m	100%	92%
Southwest Details →	ATL 07:07 → DEN 08:16WN 204	2h 17m Denver	DEN 10:33 → SMF 11:58WN 743	7h 51m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753	2h 27m Los Angeles	LAX 18:44 → SMF 20:21DL 3712 · flown by SkyWest	8h 36m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	ATL 17:58 → LAX 19:30DL 500	2h 05m Los Angeles	LAX 21:35 → SMF 23:07DL 4083 · flown by SkyWest	8h 09m	98%	91%
Southwest Details →	ATL 07:17 → LAS 08:32WN 212	2h 22m Las Vegas	LAS 10:54 → SMF 12:25WN 819	8h 08m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	ATL 07:25 → MSP 09:00DL 2668	1h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701	7h 44m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	3h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:25 → SMF 16:07DL 1342	8h 57m	100%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON